中国制造业转型刻不容缓
张漠南/中国日报（英语俱乐部/译）
编者按：
全球化已经裹挟了这个时代，开眼看世界，把握世界经济规律尤显重要。华安“北斗星”项目启动之时，李光荣董事长曾经寄望：“内脑、外脑、人脑、电脑并用，走出一条华安自己的路。”这个“外脑”，指的是借鉴外部经验。无论国内、国外，无论成功、失败的案例，都开卷有益，掩卷有味。
从本期开始，《华安保险》将开设“开卷有译”栏目，摘选外文佳篇，以不同的视角谈保险，论金融。期望华安人以此为起点，在知识中汲取营养，在智慧中吸收阳光，以更加国际化的视野探索金融蓝海，融入全球经济浪潮。
China’s long-held, low-cost manufacturing advantages are dwindling and it must make greater inputs into innovation.
Manufacturing has played a key role in the growth of China’s economy. In 2010, China’s manufacturing output accounted for 19.8 percent of the world’s total, slightly higher than US manufacturing’s 19.4 percent. Statistics from the United Nations show that the output of China’s manufacturing reached $2.05 trillion last year under the early 2011 exchange rate, compared with the $1.78 trillion of the United States.
Despite this, “made in China” still lags behind the US in terms of its wealth creation capabilities. Statistics show that China’s manufacturing productivity and value added are about 4.38 percent of the US’, 4.37 percent of Japan’s and 5.56 percent of Germany’s. China had only 17 of the world’s 500 most influential manufacturing brands in 2010. Lying at the middle- and low-end of the world’s manufacturing chain, China’s exports are mostly low-technology, low value-added products, while its imports are high-tech, high value-added products.
China’s export momentum has primarily been driven by quantity expansion. In fact, the biggest contributors to its trade surplus are China-based transnational corporations. In the last 10 or so years, the country’s mushrooming foreign trade has to a large extent been driven by foreign-funded enterprises, which have in particular played a very important role in its exports. Take 2008 as an example. In that year, China’s export surplus was $295.4 billion, of which $170.6 billion, or 57.7 percent of the country’s total trade surplus, was created by China-based foreign-funded enterprises.
Due to their relatively low resource prices, the marginal productivity of capital in China and other developing nations is usually higher than in developed nations. According to a survey conducted by the World Bank of 12,400 enterprises across 120 Chinese cities, the average net assets return ratio of China’s industrial enterprises exceeded 15 percent in 2005, while the ratio for private enterprises was 19 percent and for foreign-funded enterprises it was 22 percent. Such a high capital return ratio stems from a long-time distortion in the country’s labor prices. Compared with a faster-growing capital return ratio, China’s labor remuneration has shown much slower growth in recent years. From 1998 to 2008, the country’s industrial enterprises achieved an average growth in profits of 30.5 percent year-on-year, far higher than the 9.9 percent growth in its labor remuneration.
Given that there is not too much space for boosting the growth of its middle- and low-end manufacturing, China should try to press for the transition to high-end manufacturing.
US has accelerated a review of its industrial structure, as indicated by President Barack Obama’s vow to get back the “lost American manufacturing” from China. According to an estimate made by the Boston Consulting Group, about 15 percent of China-based US enterprises will go back to the US from China in the next five years amid the rapid rises in China’s labor prices and Washington’s expedited efforts to reverse the trend for outsourcing.
What will such an increased US manufacturing edge mean to China?
With the expected rises in China’s labor costs as well as the yuan’s appreciation and its resources and environmental bottleneck, China’s long-held low-cost advantages in the manufacturing sector are ebbing away. The possible “double lose” of both high-end and low-end manufacturing advantages will be a big challenge to China in the decade ahead if the country fails to set up a solid foundation for innovation and successfully raise productivity as soon as possible.
China has no reason to delay its efforts to increase its input into research and development and innovation, which will facilitate its transformation into a technological power.
摘自2012年2月3日 China Daily
国内一直以来具有的低成本制造优势正在逐步消失，创新迫在眉睫。
在中国经济的增长过程中，制造业一直起着关键性作用。2010年度，中国的制造业产值在世界总量的占比为19.8％，略高于美国的19.4％。据联合国数据显示，中国制造业产值达2.05万亿美元，美国则只有1.78万亿美元（以2011年初的汇率基础计算）。
虽然在总产值方面超越了美国，但在财富创造的能力方面仍远远然落后于欧美国家与日本。据统计数据显示，中国制造业的生产力和附加值仅为美国的4.38％，德国的5.56％和日本的4.37％。2010年中国只拥有17个世界500强制造业品牌，仍处于产业链的中低端。中国的出口产品大多是低技术含量，低附加值的产品，而进口的则是高科技、高附加值产品。
中国的出口动力主要在于量的扩张。事实上，中外贸易顺差的主要力量是跨国公司。过去10年间，全国对外贸易热潮中，外商投资企业一直处于主导地位。以2008年为例，中国的全年出口顺差为2954亿美元，其中57.7％是由在中国的外商投资企业创造的。
中国与其他发展中国家拥有着资源价格相对较低的优势，因此，资本的边际生产率通常比发达国家更高。在世界银行的一项调查中，涵盖了中国的120个城市的12400家企业数据。这项调查显示出，中国工业企业的净资本回报率在2005年超过15％，民营企业是19％，外商投资企业高达22％。为何会有如此高的资本回报率？原因是长期的劳动力价格扭曲。资本回报率迅速增长的同时，中国的劳动力价格增长却慢得多。1998年到2008年的10年中，全国工业企业实现利润年均增长30.5％，而劳动报酬则只有9.9％的平均增长率。
随着经济与科技的发展与人们日益增长的高端产品需求，中低端制造业的增长空间已越来越小，中国应加快向高端制造业过度。
美国方面已经开始对其产业结构进行检讨，奥巴马总统誓要从中国找回曾经的“美国制造”。据波士顿咨询集团的一项估计，在未来五年中，由于中国的劳动力价格的快速上涨和华盛顿方面的加快努力来扭转外包趋势，在中国的美国企业将有约15％返回到本土。
而未来美国的制造业竞争优势又意味着什么？
中国劳动力成本不断上升、人民币不断升值、资源和环境的限制也开始制约低端制造业的发展，中国长期以来的低成本优势正在消失。未来的十年，如果不能打下坚实的创新基础并提高生产力，中国将面临高端和低端制造业“双输”的局面。
由此可见，技术转型已刻不容缓，中国必须加大研发力度和创新投入，力争成为技术强国。